I first came across financial models when, as part of an audit in 2006, I came across an impairment test in accordance with IAS 36 “Impairment of Assets”.
I remember that the compiler of this model, a very outstanding specialist, was extremely proud that we had to contact him many times for explanations: he managed to create such a complex structure, which, except for himself, no one can figure out from one approach. At that moment, I saw financial modeling, if not unattainable, then at least a very difficult to understand skill, which can only be mastered by combining deep fundamental knowledge of finance and technical skills in MS Excel.
Why do you need a financial model?
So what kind of beast is this - a financial model? Generally speaking, this is a calculating tool that converts various forecasts, scenarios, visions regarding business development into financial indicators for a different circle of users.
For example, financial models today are used in the following cases: aruba wireless certifications
Preparation of forecast reporting forms, analysis of forecast financial indicators, identification of future cash gaps;
Drawing up projected cash flows to attract bank financing;
Assessment of the financial attractiveness of the investment project: calculation of the net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR);
Assessment of business value by profitable method
Checking non-current assets for impairment in accordance with IAS 36 "Impairment of Assets";
Stress test illustrating the financial condition of a business under various scenarios, including macroeconomic ones;
Presentation of a startup company to a potential investor.
As you can see, there are many cases of using financial models. Only now, unfortunately, today none of the international qualifications in the field of finance teaches financial modeling. Most of the financial modeling tutorials, in my opinion, are more like learning individual financial functions of MS Excel, and for use in practice, such manuals lack integrity.
It is my deep conviction that you can master financial modeling skills only by hand, that is, you need to make a financial model from start to finish under the guidance of an experienced mentor. And even if at first it will be relatively simple, the main thing is to start. If you have basic MS Excel skills, plus you have a financial qualification (say, DipIFR) or are involved in budgeting, then you already have an admission ticket to the financial modeling club.
For the sake of fairness, it must be said that MS Excel is, albeit the most popular, but only one of many tools for compiling financial models. Some large companies, including Russian ones, develop their own software for financial modeling. That is, the world of financial modeling is very diverse from a technological point of view.
The financial model is a conveyor that must work properly, packaging and transforming "raw materials", i.e. initial data, in the financial indicators needed by users. It is imperative that this conveyor be flexible (to allow readjustments), be able to handle various types of "raw materials" (from forecasts to actual indicators), and work on the principle of a modular constructor.
In general, the work of the financial model looks like this:
modeling courses in Excel
As you can see, the model converts the initial data (most often forecasts) into financial results. However, there is one problem with forecasts - they never come true. Yes Yes exactly! So why then a financial model is needed at all?
Despite the deliberately inaccurate forecasts, the financial model has its application. In today's rapidly changing world, it is not so much the forecasts themselves with their inevitable unrealizability that are important, but stress tests. Instead of answering the question "what will happen?", The modern financial model should answer the question "what will happen if ?" In other words, it is not so much the model results themselves that are important as the analysis of various scenarios and the sensitivity of the results to changes in the initial data.
In addition, without a financial model, no self-respecting investor will consider investing in a new project or, as they say now, a startup. The results of the financial model for startups (the so-called pre-money valuation and post-money valuation) are the starting point for complex negotiations on ownership interests between young business founders and potential investors.
International modeling standards
In the fat 2000s, few people thought about users of financial models. On the contrary, the trend was such that the creators of financial models tried to show in all their glory their importance, skill in handling MS Excel and exclusivity. That outstanding specialist from the beginning of my article was certainly not alone.
Therefore, it took an order of magnitude more time to test such a sophisticated model by all stakeholders than to develop it. This is not surprising, because there were many interested parties: from the managers of the company itself to external potential investors. In 2008, at one of the international trainings in Budapest, one of the British financial modeling gurus announced the statistics that struck me at that time: when creating each new model, only 15% of the time is spent on its direct compilation, but as much as 85% - on verification by all interested parties.
Then I realized not the most obvious thing: a complex model is not an asset of the company, but of the person who created it. If this developer leaves, write the new model again.
Of course, it was not only me who realized this. The situation when the company was so dependent on the "parent" of the model did not suit many people. And not so long ago, the first attempts to standardize the process of financial modeling began in the financial community. We can say that an attempt is now being made to develop a la "international standards" for financial modeling by analogy with international financial reporting standards.
A non-profit organization was created to promote FAST financial modeling standards. Among the founders of the organization are the world's largest consulting companies, banks, large industrial holdings, that is, those for whom financial modeling is at the epicenter of their work.
FAST standards (English - "fast") assume that the financial model should be:
F lexible (flexible),
A ppropriate (appropriate for the user),
S tructured (structured),
T ransparent (transparent).
The good news is that financial modeling experts have gone beyond inventing the acronym FAST, but have come up with clear, understandable, and consistent standards for financial modellers. Among about a hundred such standards, I would single out the following:
Clearly divide the sheets in the model into:
Raw data sheets
Calculation sheets
Results sheets
Format all sheets of the model in the same way, with columns in the same order.
Try to avoid linking to external files.
Make a diagram showing the structure and logic of the model.
Use different cell formats for data entry and calculations: for example, color all input data in blue, and leave all cells with formulas, which are the majority, as standard black.
Don't use "formula in formula". Better to make an extra auxiliary line.
Make the formula so that it takes no more than 24 seconds to explain it to a colleague.
Do not use the IF function more than once, or rather avoid it altogether. There are many understandable substitutes for this function.
Do not use the functions "NPV" (NPV), "IRR" (IRR), as they have better substitutes
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